Lithium-Ion Batteries Could be Too Expensive, MIT Team Says | BNET Auto Blog | BNET

Lithium-Ion Batteries Could be Too Expensive, MIT Team Says | BNET Auto Blog | BNET: "According to Luis A. Ortiz, research director of MIT’s Group Sadoway, “It’s all about the time frame. There is plenty of lithium overall [mostly in China and South America], but in order to meet expansion targets we’d have to considerably expand the pace of mining, and I don’t see ramp rates that would allow the mines to keep up with that demand. Maybe 10 to 15 years from now.”

Another huge issue is lithium cost, Ortiz said. “There is no open market in lithium, and there are very high swings in demand,” he said. The U.S. Advanced Battery Consortium (USABC) sees as its goal to “continue development of high-power battery technologies to reduce cost to $20 per kilowatt-hour and extend life to 15 years.” Such cost and lifecycle metrics would make mass penetration of battery cars a virtually foregone conclusion. But Ortiz sees $20 a kilowatt-hour as far in the future.

“The cost has to come down to the point where EVs can reach the majority of the population, and I see lithium challenges as keeping batteries at least 2X from the price USABC would allow mass adoption,” Ortiz said. He added that the high cost of containment structures (to ensure safety) and the volatile organic carbonate used as an electrolyte are “fixed overheards” that are hard to bring down over time, and very difficult to reach $100 to $150 a kilowatt-hour. Right now, Ortiz said an optimistic assessment would put lithium-ion battery technology at $400 to $600 per kilowatt-hour."